“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” – George Santayana, the Life of Reason, 1905. “A nation is secure to the extent to which it is not in danger of Having to sacrifice core values, if it wishes to avoid war, and is able, if challenged, to maintain them by victory in such a war.” Walter Lippmann.
Introduction:
On February 29th, 2024, The Ethiopian Institute of Foreign Affairs (IFA) launched a book that was titled “የሁለት ውኃዎች ዐቢይ ስትራቴጂ” – loosely translated as “The Grand Strategy of Two Waters: The Nile Basin and Access to the sea”
This Book was prepared by the TheIFAinstituteHornonbehalfofoftheAfrica EthiopianForeign Ministry (MOFA) and under the Guidance of Ethiopian Prosperity Party –the Governing Party.
The Institute of Foreign Affairs, a foreign policy think tank based in Addis Ababa. In collaboration with several senior ambassadors, diplomats, and Addis Ababa Universality, have organized PM Abiy’s far reaching strategies towards the two waters of the Nile River & the Red Sea.
This booklet (written in Amharic), consists of 54 pages with footnotes in some areas, and discusses in details book discusses in detail the Nile Basin and the Red Sea as key strategic areas for Ethiopia’s national security Even though it Violates international law and, in particular, expresses unprecedented claims on neighboring countries of Eritrea, Somalia and Djibouti.
“The title of the booklet is. When translated into English “The Grand Strategy of the Two Waters.” The two waters referenced here are the Nile and the Red Sea. The focus of the analysis is the history, religion, and politics surrounding these two different waters and the religious, historical and political views of the Ethiopian state towards the waters. The report at the outset claims that both waters pose security challenges to Ethiopia. It also maintains that these waters are sources for diplomatic row, and proxy wars with those that share the same water bodies.
Second, it asserts that the country’s future development is believed to be intertwined with those water bodies. “(1)
History shows that at times when Ethiopia was in a better position to control or to have access to those water bodies, there were better chances of prosperity, says the report. To substantiate this point, the report goes back to pre-Christianity era when Ethiopia controlled both waters. In this respect, a wild and unsubstantiated religious argument is advanced that Ethiopia was blessed by its “creator” to have been with both the Nile and the Red Sea. With this argument, it appears as if religious justification for achieving prosperity would be central to Ethiopia’s access to the Sea or controlling the flow of the water of the Nile.(2)
Ethiopia Threatens all its neighbors from Egypt +Sudan (The Nile river) to the Red Sea Lateral: What Next? – In the geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa, a compelling question has emerged, igniting speculation and concern: Will Ethiopia find itself embroiled in a conflict with Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan all centered on the pursuit of a Red Sea port?
As tensions simmer and regional dynamics evolve, the possibility of a military confrontation looms, underscoring the intricate interplay of territorial ambitions, strategic interests, and historical animosities in the region.
Ethiopia Uses religious, and historical (false) argument has been advanced in order that “God Almighty “has blessed it to control the both The Nile and the Red Sea.
Ethiopia says, for example “the Nile basin and the access to the sea is a national security matter. These threats are both past and present. There is, therefore, a need to have a comprehensive strategy to withstand threats from outside. There is a need to use all national powers to eliminate these threats. To that end, three priority areas that are complimentary strategies are necessary to outline: Military strength, economic browse, and diplomatic efforts.(3)
The book is divided into 5 chapters and the book navigates historical and contemporary trends surrounding Ethiopia’s water resources and its cooperation/confrontation with the neighboring countries, aiming to invigorate dialogue among stakeholders and shape development.
Ethiopia’s search for Access to the Red Sea Port:
Ethiopia has the 2 ports of Massawa & Assab before the Eritrean independence of 1991.Which
the report carefully details the historyTheofhowHornEthiopia hasoflostAfricaitsaccessibility to these two Eritrean sea ports from 188855- until the Eritrean Independence in 1991.
The report concludes that unless Ethiopia ignores international and regional laws, including its neighbors’ territorial integrity and sovereignty, it will not succeed to own its own ports or access to the sea Ethiopia seeks, the report argues, unhindered access to the sea for national security(military ,navy) and economic growth.
The report also urges the PP Government of PM Abyi to build a strong Navy, even being a landlocked nation and without access to a sea port and strength the army.
In Another words, the report encourages the Ethiopian Govt. to undertake hegemonic actions, rather than diplomatic & commercial win- win scenario towards its strategic Goals On the accessibility to the Red Sea.
Djiboutian Govt., Offer of a Sea Port to Ethiopia at Tajoure, Djibouti.
On September 10th, 2024, Djiboutian Govt. said it has offered a port-sharing deal with Addis Ababa, a move aimed at easing tensions between Horn of Africa rivals Ethiopia and Somalia at an existing Tdajour Port on the Red Sea which was opened in 2017 at cost of $60 million .
Djibouti’s Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf said his country has offered to give Ethiopia access to the port of Tadjoura, which is about 100 kilometres from the border with its East African neighbour. This could solve the dispute between Somalia and Ethiopia over a controversial port deal between Addis Ababa and the breakaway region of Somaliland.(4)
Djibouti’s Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssef says his country has a proposal that could solve the dispute between Somalia and Ethiopia.
In an interview with VOA’s Horn of Africa Service, Youssef said his country has offered to give Ethiopia access to the port of Tadjoura, about 100 kilometers (62 miles) from the border with Ethiopia.
He said Djibouti and other countries such as Turkey have been trying to solve the dispute between Somalia and Ethiopia, which ignited at the beginning of this year when Ethiopia signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the breakaway region of Somaliland, a deal Somalia sees as an infringement to its sovereignty.
Under the deal, Somaliland would lease 20 kilometers (12 miles) of shoreline to Ethiopia in return for recognition, according to Somaliland officials.
Ethiopia already relies on Djibouti’s main port to import most of its goods, using four different terminals, said Youssouf, who is a candidate for the African Union Commission chairperson. “Djibouti is even ready to hand over a new port, a brand-new port that has been built, a brand-new corridor to the northern border of Djibouti, that corridor will be very helpful to Ethiopia, at least to decrease the cost of transport,” he said.
“Djibouti is even ready to consider a mix-management of the port with Ethiopia,” he added.
“We are not accepting anything beyond that,” he added.
Youssouf said Djibouti put the port proposal on the table a month ago and informed Ethiopian leaders, who responded.
“The response we get is a positive one, so they are considering the technicalities of it, so we will certainly in a few days’ time or in [a] few weeks, sit down again and put the final adjustments to the formula and see how we can help,” he said.
Djibouti is a small Horn of Africa country The in aHornstrategicmaritimeof locationAfrica.Ithosts military bases for France, the United States, Italy, Japan and China. Youssouf said his country hosts these five militaries because it is neutral and because the maritime route between the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden faces threats from militants, Houthis and, sometimes, piracy.
“The presence of those naval bases in Djibouti is first and foremost to protect, you know, and guarantees the safety of navigation in the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb,” he said.
Asked if Djibouti’s offer includes a naval base for Ethiopia, Youssouf said, “No.” (5)
Conclusions:
The Horn of Africa and the Middle East are two regions fundamentally intertwined traditionally through their access to the red sea, one of the most strategic maritime routes for world trade. Honest and Genuine Negotiations, diplomatically and commercially will enhance Ethiopia’s position rather then bellicose hegemonic threats against the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of 5 neighboring countries.
What does Ethiopia’s Grand strategy of two rivers report (Prosperity Party ideology) mean to the security, peace, economic and political development of the neighboring countries of the Horn of Africa (HOA) region??
Even though Djiboutian Government has offered a joint –management of Tadjura port which Ethiopian Govt., has not responded yet. This shows That Ethiopia’s Grand Strategy for access to the Red Sea is NOT genuine Commercial- interest but rather political, ideological and military power projections.
Commercial access is NOT enough nor it’s what Ethiopia’s strategic Goals, but a military-economic & maritime supremacy cum hegemony against the Red Sea lateral, The Gulf of Aden , Indian Ocean Basin, and Horn of African (HOA) countries .
Footnotes:
- Megalommatis, Muhammad shamsaddin correspondence & report with the author (2024).
- Ibid
- Ibid
- (AFP)Djibouti says offering port-sharing deal to Ethiopia(2024) https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240910-djibouti-says-offering-port-sharing-deal-to-ethiopia
- Harun Macruuf (VOA)Djibouti offers port to defuse Ethiopia-Somalia tension (2024) https://www.voanews.com/a/djibouti-offers-port-to-defuse-ethiopia-somalia-tension/7766797.html
https://x.com/addisstandard/status/1763147384425443384
https://press.et/herald/?p=91549 https://qarannews.com/253091-2/ https://waltainfo.com/new-book-titled-the-grand-strategy-of-two-waters-launched/ https://eslemanabay.com/%E1%89%A0%E1%8B%93%E1%8B%B5%E1%8B%8B-%E1%8A%A5%E1%8A%93-%E1%89%A0%E1%8B%93%E1%8B%B5%E1%8B%8B%E1%89%BD%E1%8A%9 5-%E1%8B%8B%E1%8B%9C%E1%88%9B%E1%8D%A4-%E1%8B%A8%E1%88%81%E1%88%88%E1%89%B5-%E1%8B%8D/
